Downstream Enterprises Are Concerned: Where Will The Dye Market Go In 2019?

Looking back on 2018, China's dyestuff market was running at a high level. After stopping the decline in 2016 and 2017, the dye market made a good repair for the collapse of the industry in 2015.


In 2018, the overall industry atmosphere of China's dye market turned better, and the confidence of factories and traders was improved. At the same time, driven by the favorable support from the cost and supply side, the dye market has gone out of a breakthrough upward trend in 2018.


From the perspective of the whole dye industry chain, in the upstream and downstream links, the dye factory has a strong voice and dominant advantage in the industrial chain, and the discourse power is mostly concentrated in the hands of leading enterprises (such as Longsheng, Runtu, Jihua, Huali, Jinji and other large dye factories). In the dye industry, leading enterprises have absolute advantages in production scale, market share, patent share and technical support. In 2018, a number of large-scale dyestuff manufacturers are also the leading players in the price rise of the dye industry.


Looking forward to China's dye market in 2019, the decline in operating rate may be repaired. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the parking factories in Northern Jiangsu began to work gradually. It is expected that after 2019, the effective production capacity of Northern Jiangsu dyestuff will be restored, and the industry start-up and production supply will gradually increase. At the same time, a number of large-scale dye relocation and production expansion projects are gradually coming to an end, and some projects are expected to release new capacity in 2019, which will further lead to the loose supply of the dye industry.


In terms of demand, "it's hard to say optimistic" has become the overall industry status of downstream printing and dyeing and terminal clothing and home textile. The weak performance of the peripheral macro-economy led to the gradual decline of the terminal clothing and home textile market, and the demand side support of the dye industry in the coming year will remain weak.


Therefore, based on the analysis of various factors, it is expected that the average price of dyestuff market in 2019 will rise significantly compared with that in 2018, but at the same time, due to the restriction of cost pressure, it is difficult for the center of gravity of dye market to appear large downward space, and the annual average price increase is estimated to be 5% ~ 10%.


Take the reactive black WNN 200% as an example, the market fluctuation range is expected to be 28 yuan / kg ~ 36 yuan / kg; in terms of disperse dyes, the pricing coordination of large factories may change greatly after the expiration of main patents in 2019, and the market fluctuation may be significantly expanded. Taking 300% disperse black ECT as an example, the market fluctuation range is expected to be between 32 yuan / kg and 48 yuan / kg.