Sticky Short Industry Will Continue The Tight Supply And Demand Situation

Viscose staple market prices continued to rise in March 16th, ranging from 50 yuan to 100 yuan per ton, and nearly 10% since the festival.

Manufacturers generally implement pre contract, orders more than have been discharged until April.

At present, the viscose factory overhaul capacity is about 20%, and the market stock pressure is lighter.

According to Anxin securities, it is expected that in 2016, if there is no new capacity and demand continues to grow, the industry will continue to have a tight supply and demand situation.

According to Shanghai Securities News March 18th, the latest trend shows that viscose manufacturers recently overhaul capacity of about 20%, mainly concentrated in Shandong, Fujian and some manufacturers in Central China, the market is low.

In terms of mainstream quotations, the mid-range offer is 13700 yuan -13800 yuan / ton, and the focus of the firm is 13500 yuan -13600 yuan / ton.

The high-end quotation is 13900 yuan / ton, and the manufacturers generally carry out the pre contract, and the orders are delayed to the April level.

From the perspective of industry supply and demand pattern, due to the market downturn and

In recent years, the production speed of viscose staple fiber industry has slowed down significantly. The growth rate of new capacity in 2014 and 2015 was only 6%, significantly lower than the average level in the past few years.

At the same time, under the pressure of environmental protection, about 10% of the capacity was withdrawn from the market in 2015, resulting in a sharp contraction in the supply side.

Considering the 180 thousand tons of Zhejiang Xiaoshan

In the first half of 2016, the new capacity was only 90 thousand tons (Xinjiang capacity 40 thousand tons and Shandong Silver Eagle 50 thousand tons). The actual supply capacity of the industry will be negative.

In addition, due to the withdrawal of some backward production capacity, the concentration of industries has gradually increased, and the synergy between enterprises has increased significantly.

At present, the concentration of viscose staple fiber industry in China is relatively high. Before the production capacity, the five largest enterprises occupy 53% of the market share of the industry, and the top ten enterprises occupy about 79%.

In addition, upstream

In recent years, the rate of dissolving pulp expansion is much higher than that of short viscosity industry. It is expected that the supply of dissolving pulp will continue to be loose, and the bargaining power of enterprises to the upstream pulp mill will be further improved.

At the same time, the downstream spinning and weaving enterprises are relatively decentralized, and the bargaining power of sticky enterprises is not strong enough.

By the end of 2015, China's viscose staple fiber production capacity was about 3 million 710 thousand tons, while the apparent demand in 2015 was 3 million 100 thousand tons, the export volume was 220 thousand tons, and the import volume was 140 thousand tons. The average annual operating rate of the viscose staple fiber exceeded 85%, and the supply and demand of the industry basically balanced.

According to Anxin securities, the structure of viscose staple fiber industry continues to improve under the pressure of leading enterprises' Price Alliance Synergy, mergers and acquisitions, and environmental protection.

In addition, since 2015, the trend of downstream textile industry has been stabilizing, and the demand for textile and garment industries mainly export-oriented has increased, thus increasing the consumption of raw viscose staple fiber.

A shares in Australia, Nanjing chemical fiber, Sanyou chemical and other listed companies, related to viscose staple related businesses.