Zheng Cotton And Li Kong Remain &Nbsp; Short Term Consolidation Is The Main Factor.

Since July, domestic commodity prices have shown an overall upward trend. However, due to the increase in the global cotton planting area and the expected increase in the new year's output, and the continued downturn in the downstream cotton yarn prices and the inactive consumption, the cotton price of the outer market has a larger pullback, and Zheng cotton hovers around the 21000 line.

At present, Zheng cotton Bad factors have not yet been effectively resolved, and consolidation is still the main factor in the short term.

Inflation pressure is still in place, policy adjustments need to be observed.

In June, the CPI index hit a new high. Since July, domestic and foreign commodity prices have generally risen, and sugar has hit a new high. The 70 thousand platforms of Shanghai copper have increased the pressure of rising prices, and foreign import inflationary pressures still exist.

After the domestic money supply continued to tighten after the first half of the year, some enterprises with higher financing pressure and obvious capital gap are facing not only the pressure of increasing production costs, but also the difficulty of turnover of capital and production. However, the inflationary pressures at home and abroad can not be ignored. For cotton upstream and downstream enterprises, it is not realistic to expect monetary policy to be adjusted to reverse the downward trend of cotton prices.

Cotton continues to go down. New cotton Late supply easing

The latest US global cotton supply and demand report lowered the cotton consumption and trade volume this year, raised the total output and final inventory, and also lowered the output and export volume of US cotton next year. The recent trend of outer cotton is weaker than that of Zheng cotton, mainly because of late market pressure. From 1 to June 2011, China imported 1 million 327 thousand tons of cotton, a decrease of 218 thousand tons compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 14.12%. Domestic cotton enterprises' demand for foreign cotton has weakened, accelerating the price of cotton. At present, the price of cotton has dropped to below 100 cents, the biggest weekly decline since December 2008. It is difficult to repeat Zheng cotton in the short term through strengthening cotton.

Cotton prices have been at a high level since last year, igniting the enthusiasm for planting cotton in the new year. The market is expected to grow 81 million 340 thousand acres of cotton in 2011, an increase of 5.6% over the 2010 year. Last year, cotton prices continued to rise, mainly due to the inflation expectation's drive to the rising trend of commodities and the existence of the gap between supply and demand of cotton. However, with the continuous decline of cotton prices this year, whether cotton farmers or cotton enterprises or trading enterprises are beginning to emerge, the habit of buying or selling in the long run has always been there. 9, in October, new cotton will be on the market, the market supply is loose, and the old cotton has not been completely consumed.

The wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. market Short term pressure is bigger.

Downstream textile enterprises demand for cotton is relatively low, mainly due to cost increases in various aspects, but terminal sales have not improved. At present, the spot market is in the off-season consumption, and some of the enterprises with more cotton reserves in the early stage, because of the negative outlook on the market and the pressure of capital turnover, have been selling frequently in the near future. A certain enterprise in Shandong has cut down the 4 grade lint purchase price several times in half a month. Cotton price "roller coaster" market, so that downstream textile enterprises suffer. High cost drives the high price of textiles, resulting in a direct reduction in orders and an increase in finished goods inventories. Sales difficulties cause the price of products to fall, which is still unable to boost consumer demand.

Due to the lack of speculation in the market, there is little willingness to intervene. The lowest purchasing protection price of 19800 yuan announced by the prophase countries seems to have become a strong supporting position for cotton prices. If the market consumption continues to slump, the price will go down. Once the 19800 supporting position is abandoned by the market, the Cotton falling space will be further opened.

This shows that the downward trend of outer cotton is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the domestic market consumption is generally relatively low. In the context of the consensus that the market has increased the cotton output in the new year, Zheng cotton air factor can not be effectively resolved in the short term. Looking forward to the adjustment of monetary policy in the second half of the year, and the more active domestic commodity market in recent years, it has formed certain support for Zheng cotton. However, before the bad factors have yet to be resolved, the price trend is still dominated by consolidation.