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Demographic Dividend: Zero Growth Of Population?

2010/8/5 22:11:00 38

The Chinese Academy of Sciences released the China Science Development Report 2010 in July 28th. The report is the first comprehensive research report on the scientific development theory, the summary of scientific development experience and the assessment of the level of scientific development characterized by the cross study of natural science and Humanities in China. The most interesting concern of the report is the first time that the timetable for population growth in mainland China has been released. According to the report, Shanghai ranks first, and it will achieve zero population growth in 2015, Tianjin in second place, and Beijing in third place, and will achieve zero population growth in 2018.

All parts of China "

population

What does the zero growth timetable mean for the textile industry of labor-intensive industries?

The population growth in all regions shows zero growth.

demographic dividend

Will disappear quickly.

The rapid growth of China's economy in the past 30 years of reform and opening up generally has three driving forces, one is labor dividends, two is the institutional bonus accumulated by market reform, and three is the dividend of economic globalization.

Now these three driving forces are gradually disappearing.

Timetable for "zero population growth" across China shows a timetable for the disappearance of labor dividends.

In fact, the rising tide of wages this year has been reminding textile entrepreneurs that human cost will increasingly become a "big worry" for enterprises.

In response, Liu Yuhui, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that under normal circumstances, when the economy crossed the "Lewis inflection point", the phenomenon of labor remuneration would accelerate.

The rapid rise in Chinese wages seems to have been four or five years ahead of the Lewis turning point in population structure.

The reason for this is only the result of the economic bubble.

China's economy

foreign trade

A large number of foreign trade surplus caused the high level of foreign exchange reserves, and resulted in excessive issuance of RMB. This phenomenon is called "imported inflation".

In recent years, due to the large amount of money flowing into the capital products, the real estate industry has rapidly expanded, and the living cost and business cost of the cities have been rising. The cost of living of ordinary workers has naturally increased. When this situation has reached a very serious level, it will inevitably push up wages.

In turn, the profits of the industry are getting thinner and thinner, prompting more funds to run away from the real economy and pushing up the price of capital products faster.

Under the influence of economic development driven by endogenous contradictions, it will be difficult for the traditional processing industry to continue to rely on the advantages of the labor force for survival and development. Reducing the employment and increasing efficiency will become the main direction of industrial upgrading.

That is to say, labor-intensive industries must be accelerated to become highly efficient and non labor-intensive industries. In the future, automation and intellectualization of production equipment will be related to the survival and development of enterprises.

For textile enterprises, on the one hand is the gradual disappearance of demographic dividends; on the other hand, enterprises are trying to improve efficiency. They compete in the same period of time, and time will be an objective judgment.

There is no bystander in this brutal contest of life and death, and the survivor is the winner.