A Share Market "Restlessness": Low Position Is The Opportunity To Buy.

Last week, the "restlessness" in China's A share market once again attracted the attention of the world. On Monday, the stock index closed down 7.70% with a sharp drop of two. In the next two days, the stock index continued to rebound by 1.82% and 4.74%.

The "monkey market" reappears in terms of abundant capital, leverage amplification, long and short message intertwined and irrational mentality.

Technical analysis: on the daily line, the market trend has expanded triangular shape. If the front is a double head, there is only one chance to escape from the top.

If we want to take 5 small waves, we must break through 3400 points. However, the current route of the brin channel is 3444 at the same time. If we fall below 3260 points, the trend of stepping back is even more obvious.

Weekly line,

This week fell 0.73% of the false mid line, standing on the weekly average line of upward divergence. The MACD of the weekly line entered the leveling state. KD was passivated from the high level golden fork, still in the horizontal golden fork state, and the Boolean passageway on the weekly line continued to open upward. The stock index did not stand on the upper track for two weeks in 8 weeks, while the lower track was turning upward, indicating that the stock index was being withdrawn.

There is a downward trend in stock index change, and attention should be paid to the risk of callback in the middle line.

However, the recent large market pullbacks have been supported by buying, the bull market atmosphere is good, the stock index wants to adjust the short line very hard, will the stock index oscillate above 3000 points, change the space with time, wait for the medium-term average moving system to move up, and then change the inventory.

Outlook for future market:

The core driving force has not changed. After the valuation repair, "reform + pformation" will become the main battleground of A shares in the future.

Investors can pay attention to the reform of state-owned assets.

Banks, big consumption, electricity reform and so on, combined with policy expectations and performance elements, closely follow the wheel rhythm.

The appearance of "monkey market" is the result of intensified competition. There are many reasons behind it.

On the one hand, the central bank's monetary policy has provided financial support for the start of the stock market; on the other hand, the development of margin trading has enlarged the leverage of funds, and the game between the two sides has been fierce.

In such a big environment, once the short message is attacked in turn, and irrational emotions add fuel to the flames, the stock market is bound to jump up and down.

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In the near future, the Shanghai stock index has a wide range of shocks before 3400, and the market view also disagrees with the future trend of the bull market.

Huang Yanming, the director of the Guotai Junan Research Institute, made a few comments on the market recently, and again issued a research report jointly with the chief macroeconomic analyst Ren Zeping. He reiterated that the current market logic remained unchanged, and the bull market would run through 2015.

According to the research report, in the 2010-2013 years, due to the lack of enough understanding of the necessity of speed shifting and the necessity of reform, the progress of reform slowed down, and the old growth mode refused to be cleared. It formed three big black holes in capital, plus leveraged debt cycles, expanding the demand for ineffective capital and pushing up risk-free interest rates.

As the new central leadership group pushed ahead with reform in 2014, market risk preferences improved significantly.

Since the two quarter of 2014, the real estate sector, which has a high degree of marketization in the three big black holes, has launched a long period of liquidation, and has forced the clearing of the two major areas of the system.

The reform of finance, taxation and state owned enterprises has accelerated the pace of blocking the three major capital black holes, shrinking the inefficient financing needs, creating conditions for policy easing, guiding risk free interest rates to fall, and enhancing risk preferences.

The risk-free interest rate has lowered the yield of shadow banking products, and the risk-taking preference has improved the confidence of all sectors of the community to restore China's future confidence and start to configure stocks representing future assets, capital flows from real estate and shadow banking to the stock market, and the stock market gets rid of the stock game dilemma and moves towards the new era of incremental game.